In the past two days, the soybean market was ignited by a news. According to rumors in the workshop, "Jilin soybean processing enterprises subsidies are determined, the subsidy amount is 300 yuan / ton, time from March 15 to April 30 acquisition and storage, and processing completed before June 30 "And the picture shows it (note the red circled part in the picture below). As soon as this news came out, the domestic soybean futures rose by more than 80 yuan in one day (March 16), which can be said to be a heart-strengthening agent. Soybean practitioners in various places have said that Jilin is already a "stone hammer", and Heilongjiang and Inner Mongolia will follow up on the subsidy policy in the later stages, and the soybean market will usher in a wave of upswing in the future. Against the background of hot market discussions and various bullish analysis, Yang Jinshan (author) of China Grain and Oil Information Network believes that everyone needs to calm down. After all, for the time being, everything is still rumored, and many details still need to be calm. Next, I will sort out the current status of the soybean market for you, and then look at what the state is going to do to subsidize.

 

First, the domestic soybean market is diversified

 

I do n’t know if everyone finds it. Although from the fourth quarter of 2017, domestic ports have been very strict in checking the flow of imported soybeans. Even in March 2018, ports in Shandong did not even import US soybeans. However, the price of domestic beans is still difficult to increase, and the market is not active in purchasing and selling. The following is the mainstream price chart of soybean purchase and sales in various food points and wholesale markets collected on this website. It is not difficult to find that soybean prices have entered a "rising to zero period", although in some areas there have been changes in prices. However, it is also an individual phenomenon, and the floating space is only between 0.01-0.03 yuan / jin, and the mainstream purchase and sales prices have basically remained unchanged.

 

Why does the amount of imported US soybeans flow into the market decrease, and domestic soybean prices are still difficult to rise? After the author's multi-party exchanges and research, I still found that the supply side of domestic soybean prices, which is difficult to rise, is "diversified supply". One is the futures delivery of soybeans. About half a month ago, there was a batch of soybean futures delivery soybeans on the Dalian Commodity Exchange in the market. The prices ranged from 3,200 to 3,400 yuan per ton. 3,400 yuan / ton, pricing based on quality; the third is that the domestic market supply of non-converted soybeans in Russia has increased significantly, the price is between 3250-3550 yuan / ton. Coupled with the pressure of "difficult to sell grain" brought by the domestic high yield of soybeans, it is strange that soybean prices can rise! Now, from the perspective of the supply side, various low-price sources are hitting the market, so we can only look at the digestibility of the demand side. And what is the status quo on the demand side? Please see the note written by Yang Jinshan, an analyst at China Grain and Oil Information Network.

 

Second, weak national demand is unlikely to change much

 

The weak state of domestic soybean market demand in 2017-2018 is still continuing. In 2017, we can say that the environmental protection inspection gave the soybean demand side a "heavy punch". In 2018, we can only say that "this punch is still hurting." Environmental inspections are a good thing. They will be blessed for future generations, but we have to accept the pain. In addition, with the improvement of transportation conditions and the improvement of vegetable planting technology, coupled with God ’s appreciation of rice, the price of vegetables in the past two years is very cheap, which has caused a great suppression of the market demand for soy products, like the author A friend from Guangzhou said, “I can buy enough tofu for two meals now.” I think this phenomenon should be common in most parts of the country, so the demand for soy products is shrinking, so the market for soybeans is natural. Will also be implicated. Many farmers have even begun to report that “No soybeans will be planted in 2018”.

 

Okay, the point is here! If the people's enthusiasm for grain production is suppressed. Then, it will be difficult for the national control plan to be implemented smoothly. This has set a barrier for China to solve the problem of soybean food security. This is the same problem as the adjustment of corn planting structure in previous years, so the author believes that future policy adjustments in soybean follow the adjustments in previous years. The possibility of strategy is very high. In the past few years, in order to stimulate the market's enthusiasm for the purchase of corn, the company has proposed a policy of subsidizing enterprises. Therefore, this year's soybean processing enterprise subsidies came into being.

 

The introduction of soybean subsidies is bound to be "explosive", but what is the use?

 

I see here, I believe that some people should understand the author's mind, that is, the author believes that the introduction of soybean subsidies must be very "exploded", but the fundamental significance is to encourage people to grow food. The picture in the first paragraph of this article shows that the subsidy object is the grain purchased from March 15 to April 30, and processed before June 30. This period of time is well grasped, which perfectly matches the spring planting period. This can also be reflected from another aspect, even if the introduction of soybean subsidies is a short-term boost, there is no strong guidance for the long-term soybean market. Yang Jinshan, an analyst at China Grain and Oil Information Network, believes that if the implementation of soybean subsidy policies in various places causes the market to sell and sell better, it can be a quick shipment to comply with the general trend, not an excuse for traders to stock up. If this wave of gains is over, the market's purchases and sales will still return to normal fundamentals, and the demand side's right to speak will remain unshakable. The author firmly believes that the real good market for soybeans will appear in June-July, when the phenomenon of high quality and good prices will inevitably become prominent, so the author's operation of the soybean market is still "the common beans are sold as soon as they are good, and the high-quality beans are able to be stored". This concludes the entire article, I hope to give you some help!